The governments latest plan highlights an increasingly dangerous strategic environment. Photo: Bruce Rolff
Climate change is no longer a top threat for the defence force in its latest spending plan.
The 2025 Defence Capability Plan downgrades climate change to two mentions in a single paragraph - both about climate change posing a threat to Pacific Island countries.
The plan is a blueprint for how the government will invest $12 billion over the next four years for a "modern, combat-capable" New Zealand Defence Force.
It said New Zealand was facing "the most challenging and dangerous strategic environment in decades".
It marks a departure from the 2019 Defence Capability Plan, which identified climate change as a key driver of security events affecting New Zealand, mentioning it 13 times and dedicating a chapter to outlining how climate change would stretch the defence force.
Both the Defence Assessment 2021 and Defence Policy and Strategy Statement 2023 identified compounding impacts from climate change as one of the two top threats to New Zealand's defence interests in the medium-to-long term.
The other main threat was strategic competition.
The latest plan highlights an increasingly dangerous strategic environment, but almost all discussion of climate change had been dropped.
Defence Minister Judith Collins refused to answer questions about why climate change was no longer mentioned as a threat to New Zealand in the 2025 plan, and whether she had directed the change.
The defence ministry referred RNZ's questions to the Minister.
RNZ asked the Minister what had changed since previous plans and whether climate change was no longer considered a threat to New Zealand.
A spokesperson replied reiterating what the plan said about climate change threatening some Pacific Island countries:
"This Plan states that climate change remains the primary security concern for Pacific Island countries.
"Climate change is driving increasing and intensifying natural disasters, in addition to catastrophic events such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, and increasingly over time could cause critical challenges for some Pacific countries both directly and by exacerbating other security issues.
"These impacts will be responded to by the capabilities outlined in this Plan. For example, this includes investment in the utility helicopter fleet, increased surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, continued investment in vehicles, and replacement of the HMNZS Canterbury," was the full response.
Asked again why the plan no longer discussed climate change as a threat to New Zealand's security, and whether the Minister had directed the change, the spokesperson said the Minister would not be adding anything further.
Defence Minister Judith Collins refused to answer questions about why climate change was no longer mentioned as a threat to New Zealand in the 2025 plan. Photo: VNP / Phil Smith
Defence documents compared
2018: The Climate Crisis: Defence Readiness and Responsibilities report released by former Defence Minister Ron Mark described how climate change would be one of the greatest security challenges for New Zealand defence in the coming decades, identifying climate change as one of the most significant security threats of our time.
2019: Defence Capability Plan mentions climate change 13 times inside 43 pages, including:
"Responding to the impacts of climate change, which will continue to test the security and resilience of our community, our nation, the South Pacific, and the world...."
"By 2030 the environment within which the New Zealand Defence Force is expected to respond will have changed considerably. Driven by climate change and competing national interests, the frequency and diversity of security events are expected to have increased."
"With current warming rates, the links between climate change and security are on course to intensify, and without prioritisation the New Zealand Defence Force, as well as those of our partners, will be stretched with a growing number of tasks in response to climate-induced impacts globally."
"Key implications for New Zealand Defence as a result of climate change will include: an increase in the number of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations; an increased likelihood of stability operations; and a larger number of search and rescue missions occurring across a broader geographical area. "
2023: Defence Policy and Strategy Statement listed climate change as one of two main threats, along with strategic competition. It also went into detail about specific challenges and threats from climate change. Climate change was mentioned 24 times.
July 2024 - June 2028 Statement of Intent, signed by Minister Judith Collins, listed climate change as one of the two main security threats.
2025: Defence Capability Plan said New Zealand was facing the most challenging and dangerous strategic environment in decades.
The 45-page plan mentioned climate change twice inside a single paragraph, both times in reference to the Pacific Islands.
"Climate change remains the primary security concern for Pacific Island countries. It is driving increasing and intensifying natural disasters, and over time could cause critical challenges for some Pacific countries both directly and by exacerbating other security issues," it said.
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