Just three rounds remain before the Super Rugby playoffs and while the Crusaders are an obvious pick for the title, Joe Porter casts his eye over the other New Zealand contenders for the throne.
Crusaders captain Sam Whitelock holds the Super Rugby trophy aloft after their championship win last year. Photo: © Photosport
Crusaders: The juggernaut rolls on
The Crusaders look like an unstoppable force and it's unlikely anyone will emerge as the immovable object in the last three rounds, with a second straight title for Scott 'Razor' Robertson's men appearing an almost forgone conclusion (hopefully this jinxes their chances, I'm a Hurricanes fan after all).
They've won 10 straight games, losing just twice this season - both times to New Zealand opposition. It's New Zealand team's that will provide the champs with their stiffest competition, especially if they top the table and secure home advantage throughout the playoffs as expected. The Highlanders and Hurricanes have tipped them over this year and both those teams should be in the finals mix.
The Crusaders have a bye this week, which may or may not be good (obviously they can't pick up any points) as it gives them extra time to prepare following the June test series, but also robs them of valuable game time together following the international break.
They could be (and I stress could be) overtaken by the Canes, Lions or Highlanders if they lose their final two games, and while it's not beyond belief for the Highlanders to upset them next week, you'd have to have a crystal ball or be on crystal meth to think they'll lose to the Blues.
Hard not to envisage Razor breakdancing on the sidelines of AMI Stadium for a second season in a row.
At a glance: 52 points - two games left, Highlanders in Christchurch next week, Blues in Christchurch in final round.
Predicted finish regular season - 1st overall / 1st NZ conference
Predicted finish playoffs - Champions
Hurricanes: Running out of puff?
The Hurricanes have lost their last two games to Crusaders and Highlanders, and were clearly out-thought and outplayed in those matches. Concerns will remain after the June break, but equally the time off should have helped them shelve the mental shackles from those defeats.
They're one of just two teams to beat the defending champions this season and have at times been breathtaking. They'll be targeting wins in next two matches against the lowly Brumbies and Blues to put them all but out of reach of the Chiefs and Highlanders in the race for the top wildcard spot, which will give them a home quarter-final.
They'll want that spot wrapped up before their final game against the Chiefs. They don't want that match to determine who gets a playoff game at home.
It may be the historical Hurricanes fan cynic in me (or just apathy brought on by year's of disappointment), but I can't help feel the team is faltering at the wrong end of the season. They looked bereft of ideas in the wet against the Crusaders and were off the boil against the Highlanders in a match they should have been more than up for. I hope I'm wrong and they get a good run against the Brumbies and Blues to play themselves back into form before they hit the Chiefs.
They should seal a home playoff with the top wildcard spot, but from there they face a tough road to the title, likely having to go through the Chiefs or Highlanders and then the Crusaders in Christchurch. Their path to glory could be made easier if there are upsets in the opening round of the playoffs, but well, that's all up in the air.
At a glance: 45 points - three games left, Brumbies in Canberra, Blues in Wellington, Chiefs in Hamilton.
Predicted finish regular season - 4th overall (though second on points behind the Crusaders) / 2nd NZ conference
Predicted finish playoffs - beaten in semi-finals by Lions in South Africa
Highlanders: Flash in the pan, or real deal?
The Highlanders have had a erratic season with runs of top results punctuated by the odd underwhelming loss. They'll want to eliminate those blips and produce consistent performances going into the playoffs. They're coming off two impressive wins over the Hurricanes and French Barbarians and will want to ride that momentum all the way to the finals.
They have a fair bit of breathing space over the other wildcard hopefuls, and it's unlikely they'll miss out even if they lose three on the trot. They have a tough run home against the Chiefs and Crusaders before a very winnable match against possible playoff contenders the Melbourne Rebels.
This weekend's clash with the Chiefs in Suva, with the Chiefs nipping on the heels of the southerners, could determine who finishes above who in the wildcard spots.
While neither may end up with a home quarter-final, you'd want to finish fifth or sixth, rather than seventh or eighth, to avoid a last eight battle with A, the table topping Crusaders, or B having to travel to Johannesburg to take on the Lions. Finish fifth and they play the Canes, sixth, they skip across the ditch to take on the Waratahs or Rebels.
I think they'll be beaten by the Chiefs in Suva this weekend though for me the Highlanders still make the playoffs, and if they finish sixth as predicted, their finals run may be easier. I'd rather play the Waratahs in Sydney in the quarters than the Canes in Wellington.
At a glance: 40 points - three games left, Chiefs in Suva, Crusaders in Christchurch, Melbourne Rebels in Dunedin.
Predicted finish regular season - 6th overall / 4th NZ conference
Predicted finish playoffs - win quarter-final against Waratahs, lose to Crusaders in semi-final
Chiefs: Already beaten the odds
The fact the Chiefs are even in this conversation is a testament to Colin Cooper and his men. Decimated by injuries and with a new coach many pundits don't rate, not many picked them to be fighting this deep into the season. Before the start of the comp I predicted the Blues to finish above the Chiefs, humble pie in heavy helpings for moi.
The Chiefs ability to bring in players and not miss a beat has been impressive this season and proves Cooper is carrying on the Chiefs tradition started by Dave Rennie of selecting good men as well as good players. Case in point is prop Karl Tu'inukuafe, unwanted at the start of the season he was called into the Chiefs as an injury replacement and is now an All Black, with the Chiefs scrum probably the best in the competition.
They're also fighting for a wildcard spot and should get there, though with two of the last three games bruising New Zealand derbies against the Highlanders and Hurricanes they'll likely end up with a few more on the injury sidelines.
My pick is they'll beat the Highlanders and Brumbies and pick up a point against the Hurricanes in Hamilton to sneak above the Highlanders into fifth place and into a quarter-finals, where they'll again take on the Canes, but this time in Wellington. However with two New Zealand derbies to come and the toll that will take on an already depleted team, the last eight clash in the Capital is probably where their season ends.
At a glance: 37 points - three games left, Highlanders in Suva, Brumbies in Hamilton, Hurricanes in Hamilton.
Predicted finish regular season - 5th overall / 3rd in NZ conference
Predicted finish playoffs - lose quarter-final to Hurricanes
As far as the other teams go, the Lions will be tough to beat in Johannesburg and Argentina's Jaguars are on a roll and could be a real dark horse come finals time.
-RNZ
