Comment - The All Blacks play in Christchurch for the first and probably last time in a while on Saturday night. Hot off the back of a dramatic win over the Springboks, the team have given themselves and Ian Foster a bit of breathing room as they move into the next phase of the season.
Photo: PHOTOSPORT
Emphasis on 'a bit'. The critique of the All Blacks this year has been loud, passionate, and frankly, understandable.
But is it fair? New Zealanders are regarded as the most myopic rugby followers in the world, with good reason, so perhaps now is a good time to get an offshore opinion of exactly where the All Blacks are at.
Robbie Owen, aka Squidge Rugby, is someone who has been following them closely. His YouTube analysis shows have racked up 29 million views and 200,000 subscribers, making his channel the third most watched rugby content on the platform behind World Rugby and the All Blacks themselves. In a rapidly evolving world of user-generated content, this puts him well ahead of most established TV channels in ratings.
The Welshman is quick to point out that while it's been a woeful period for the All Blacks, it's important to recognise that we're currently experiencing an unusually even time in test rugby.
"It kind of feels that way, you have Ireland as the number one team in the world, but if you ask a lot of people they might say South Africa or France," he says.
"If you look over the last 20 years, even further, there has been a pretty settled 'best team' ... 90 percent of the time it's been the All Blacks, the other 10 it's been split between the Springboks, Wallabies and England.
"It works all the way down too. South Africa won the World Cup, then they lost to Wales, who lost to Italy, who lost to Georgia, who drew with Portugal, who lost to Spain, who lost to Romania, who lost to Uruguay, who lost to Chile."
So maybe are we being harsh considering the relative strength of schedule?
"Yes and no. Over the last two years this has been the weakest All Black team in my lifetime. But I think what we saw in that win over the Boks, it felt like the All Blacks again."
One of the most telling points in Owen's latest breakdown was the All Blacks seemingly regaining their identity in their win at Ellis Park. They imposed themselves early and often on the Springboks, but realistically it's not going to be a particularly sustainable way to play going forward.
"So much of what they did in that game was a gamble, so they've become a team that gambles hard and backs themselves to pull it off. Prior to that they were playing conservatively and relying on individual brilliance. Against the Springboks they put it
All on black, as it were, but if they keep doing this sooner or later it's going to backfire massively.
"It's possible that if they do that at Twickenham they could squeeze the life out of England early, but it's also possible that they could do something really stupid at Murrayfield against Scotland and lose. You saw that in the situation with the Beauden Barrett yellow card at Ellis Park when they kept trying to run it out of their 22. But if you took that to the World Cup, you're going to have more chance of winning than the boring style they were before. But the chances of them going out earlier is higher."
Worryingly, it's starting to sound an awful lot like the way we used to talk about France - with the best way to describe the Grand Slam champions now being far more akin to how you'd traditionally talk about the All Blacks.
While Beauden Barrett is out with injury for this test, questions remain over whether he or Richie Mo'unga should be the man in the number 10 jersey. Owen reckons there's room for both.
"I always felt in the Hansen era that they didn't play in a way that suited Mo'unga at all. He was being let down by the system, but I do feel a bit now that because they have two flyhalves who can run the attack in such different ways that picking them as horses for courses might be the way forward."
So, what happens next?
Many of us, including the NZ Rugby board, had expectations over the first five tests of this year. While it's fair to say they haven't really been met, there's now a back end to the season that could either be triumph or disaster. Argentina, Australia, Japan, Wales, Scotland and England await the All Blacks a year out from the World Cup.
"The interesting thing is I can see a world where they win eight from eight, I can't see a world where they lose eight from eight ... but I can also see a world where they lose any one of those eight.
"The Argentina ones are quite interesting because they should win, but it's not written in stone, Australia will probably have 60 more injuries between now and the first Bledisloe so they'll have schoolboys and Dave Rennie himself running out for them. The Japan test is one I'm really excited about, because I feel like they've got something up their sleeve! You look at what Jamie Joseph did last time, they only started playing seriously a year out from the World Cup so this is a real chance to push their preparation forward. I don't think Wales or Scotland are going to do it, but it's not impossible."
Of course, it is likely the theme of the off season will run off the result of the last game of the year, against England on 19 November.
"The England test is the really big one and the hardest to call, but I would favour England. Eddie Jones has been up front about how he didn't really care about their poor performance in the Six Nations because they were putting systems in place, but this is a game where he can say "this is a really good test of where we're at". I think from an England point of view, it's the best game to judge them off going into next year's World Cup."
Owen's parting shot makes it clear just how ominous a loss at Twickenham could be.
"From an All Black point of view, it's probably the same."
