What do the stats tell us ahead of the All Blacks semi-final?

6:25 pm on 20 October 2023
Tempers flare with Sam Whitelock in the middle. All Blacks vs Argentina, 2020.

Tempers flare with Sam Whitelock in the middle. All Blacks vs Argentina, 2020. Photo: PHOTOSPORT

The All Blacks are overwhelming favourites to beat Argentina in their Rugby World Cup semi-final in Paris, but do the stats back up the pundits?

* Argentina have won two of their 36 Tests against New Zealand (D1 L33), with both victories coming since the 2019 World Cup (25-15 in 2020, 25-18 in 2022); the Pumas' 6 percent win rate against the All Blacks is their lowest versus any side they have faced more than five times.

* New Zealand and Argentina have met three times at the World Cup (1987, 2011, 2015), with the All Blacks winning all three by margins of 10+ points. One of those matches took place in the knockout stage, New Zealand winning in the 2011 quarter-finals on their way to lifting the Webb Ellis Cup.

* New Zealand will be playing in their ninth semi-final, no other nation has reached this stage as often. The All Blacks have a 50 percent win rate in semi-finals (W4 L4) and 75 percent or better at every other stage of the tournament.

* Argentina have won their last four matches, their best run since the 2015 World Cup when they also won four in a row. They have not won more consecutive matches since five straight victories in 2012.

* New Zealand have made an average of 5.3 metres over the gain line per carry in this year's World Cup - more than any other team. Their average of 694 metres gained per game is also the most of any team in the tournament. The All Blacks also rank first for line breaks per game (14.0).

* Argentina have averaged a greater share of both possession (55.8 percent) and territory (56.6 percent) per game in this year's World Cup. New Zealand have the best lineout success rate (98.1 percent), have only failed to retain one of their 52 lineout throws in the tournament and have successfully found one of their players from each of their last 49 throws.

* Only Scotland (42.5) have beaten more defenders per game than New Zealand (35.6) or Argentina (30.2) in this year's World Cup. New Zealand have a tackle evasion rate of 29.8 percent, also the second best in the tournament this year (Scotland 32.6 percent).

All Black David Kirk scores a try against Argentina at the 1987 Rugby World Cup.

All Black David Kirk scores a try against Argentina at the 1987 Rugby World Cup. Photo: PHOTOSPORT

* Argentina have completed 69 percent of their rucks in under three seconds during this year's World Cup - the highest such rate of any team. They have seen their opponents complete just 50.5 percent of their rucks in under three seconds - the best defensive rate among all teams.

* New Zealand duo Anton Lienert-Brown (83 percent) and Ardie Savea (80 percent) are two of just five players to have a gain line success rate of 80 percent or better at this year's World Cup (min. 20 carries). Lienert-Brown has also provided the joint-most line break assists of any player (six), while Savea has been directly involved in the most tries of any forward (three tries, three try assists).

* Argentina's Thomas Gallo has beaten more defenders than any other forward in this year's World Cup (18), while team mate Facundo Isa, who could earn his 50th cap for Los Pumas in this match, has carried for more metres per 80 minutes than any other forward (128).

-Reuters

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