Scotland is about to make a decision on whether or not to dissolve a 307-year-old union with the United Kingdom.Opinion polls tentatively indicate that the dissolution will not occur – but the nationalists of Scotland are persuasive in their arguments, and at present, the fight is still too close to call.
Waveing a Scottish Saltire at a "Yes" campaign rally in Glasgow. Photo: Reuters
There are those that would argue, too, that a decision to remain in the union this hard won, and at such a close margin, would effectively be a loss, representing a schism in a belief and attitude towards a union once so powerful that would be hard to repair. For some, whichever way the referendum falls, Scotland has commenced a move away from the union that might be slowed, but cannot be stopped.
For many people living in other parts of the world, understanding a political move like this is difficult, though Scotland is far from unique in its situation – Quebec, for example, is subject to near constant campaigns for independence and has undergone two referenda, asking voters whether Quebec should proclaim national sovereignty. The arguments being made for independence by the strident self-determinists of Scotland run deep and reflect a fight as close fought as that in Quebec.
Even a few months ago, independence seemed like nothing but a pipe-dream, but the dedication of “Yes” campaigners has led to unprecedented levels of involvement and discussion among even the most apolitical and far-flung of Scots. Those campaigning for independence, led by Alex Salmond, argue that decisions made in Westminster are very rarely made with them in mind; that this is their one best chance to be rid of Tory governance forever; and that the North Sea oil revenue will support the Scottish economy financially post-independence.
At a protest at the Scottish Conservative Conference in March, voters turned out in panda costumes to remind David Cameron that there are more pandas in Edinburgh Zoo (two) than there are Tory MPs in Scotland (one). Scotland tends to be far more left-leaning than their purported representatives in parliament, and conservative policy making has riled them one too many times.
Those arguing the case for continuing the union claim that Scotland will be relying too heavily on oil revenues that may have been over-estimated by as much as 60 per cent; that the Scottish banking industry could face a collapse if the larger banks were to shift to London in the event of a split; and, playing on pure sentimentality, that we’re simply “better together”.
The Government, led by Labour politician and head of the “Better Together” campaign Alistair Darling and PM David Cameron, have been appealing to Scottish voters on this latter point, going in cap-in-hand like an errant older brother to beg for a family-first attitude:
“We are a family. The United Kingdom is not one nation. We are four nations in a single country. That can be difficult but it is wonderful. A family is not a compromise, or a second best, it is a magical identity, that makes us more together than we can ever be apart so please – do not break this family apart.”
From a Kiwi perspective, it’s not surprising that residents of Scotland are finding it hard to make up their minds, given that our mirrored battle on whether to embrace independence as a republic, or stick with our old friends in the Commonwealth as a constitutional monarchy, is both considerably less fraught and just as inconclusive.
Arguments that an elected head of state would be a more effective check on the Executive than the Attorney General highlight how little difference the establishment of New Zealand as an independent state would make in day-to-day life. Despite this, the existence of New Zealand Republic and 2009’s Head of State Referenda Bill (defeated at first reading by 53 to 68) indicate that there are many who would still fight that battle.
One of the aspects of this campaign that have been hard for many to stomach is the disenfranchisement of any and all Scots living outside of Scotland – place of birth and duration of residence have no bearing on the validity of a vote. If you don’t live in Scotland, you don’t get a say – and many Scots living outside their birthplace have found this the most bitter pill to swallow.
Anna, 28, now living in London but of Edinburgh stock, has wavered on whether she would vote for or against independence – not that she has a say either way.
“I would vote yes,” she said, “but I can’t, and it makes me feel powerless. I’ve lived in London for three years – does that mean I am no longer Scottish? Students currently studying in Scotland from all over the world and the UK are having more of a say in my country's future than I am. That feels unfair.”
People she knows back home in Scotland are finding it immensely difficult to make up their minds, she says.
Those campaigning for independence argue that decisions made in Westminster are very rarely made with them in mind. Photo: Reuters
“My immediate family are all voting yes; my friends are a mixture. Although I’ve seen a lot swing to yes in the last couple of months. I used to feel like a lot of people from my parents’ generation were more ‘yes’ whereas younger people were more ‘no’. Recently, I’ve felt like it’s too close now and there’s not really a pattern – I know people from all generations that have changed from ‘no’ to ‘yes’ and vice versa.”
Nikki, 29, has spent a number of years away from Scotland but recently returned. She has no doubt that independence from the United Kingdom would be a substantial leap forward for the country.
“I don’t want to be a part of a country that spends £36 billion on [military programme] Trident and is militarily controlled by the US. Scotland has little control over policies made in Westminster, which generally always have a negative impact on Scotland.
“Other small countries (New Zealand, Denmark, Finland, Belgium) all seem to get by just fine even without big financial industries and oil, so I believe Scotland can do it too. Ultimately, I think that more devolution of power is a positive thing for the people of Scotland”.
Mikaly, another young Scottish resident has similar reasons for his decision to vote yes, focusing heavily on the lack of democratic representation in Westminster.
“In the last general election the majority of Scotland voted for a Labour government, yet Scotland is governed by a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition. I strongly believe that decisions affecting the people of Scotland should be made in Scotland, not by a government the Scottish people did not vote for.”
Given the close proximity of the New Zealand General Election to the Scottish referendum, it is interesting to reflect upon the number of New Zealanders who will be voting in their home nation by absentia (by comparison, just over 21,000 New Zealanders voted from overseas in the 2011 General Election).
Tobias, a Kiwi who is able to vote both in New Zealand and in his new home of Edinburgh, despite not being a Scottish resident, thinks ex-pat Scots are getting a very bad deal.
“I think it’s a bit rubbish that expat Scots can’t vote ... I think New Zealand’s rules for voting abroad would be far better – you can vote if you’ve been home within the past three years. People are saying that’s going to make it easier for the yes camp: Scots living in England would surely be more likely to vote no, for instance.”
Supporting sticking with the Union on the streets of Glasgow. Photo: Reuters
But when it comes to the validity of his own vote in Scotland, however, Tobias has strong views on his right to a voice, despite having only been in the UK for about a month and a half.
“It’s a referendum about a country’s future, and how it plays out could really affect my time here – it could mean the difference between permanent citizenship and going home within five years… I’ve only been here a little while, but I do have a personal stake in the country's future all the same.”
With decisions to be made in the next week, both New Zealand and Scotland face uncertainty. For New Zealand, representation – for Scotland, a whole new era. And whether or not New Zealanders look to Scotland as inspiration for their bid for own independence, all eyes will be on the Scots as they cast their vote – no, for the importance of their historical family, or yes, for freedom, whatever than entails.
This content is brought to you with funding assistance from New Zealand On Air.
