Almost a third of native species will be 'highly vulnerable' to climate change in 2050

8:12 am on 31 January 2025
A tara iti, or fairy tern, returns to shore with its catch.

The most vulnerable species include New Zealand's rarest bird - the fairy tern. Photo: Supplied / Darren Markin

Many native species face being squeezed out of their habitats with nowhere to go as the climate heats, the lead author of a new risk assessment says.

The most vulnerable species include New Zealand's rarest bird - the fairy tern - along with all five species of native bat, alpine wētā and 50 percent of the country's species of seabird.

A risk assessment by the Department of Conservation looked at 1145 species of birds, bats, lizards, and frogs, insects and plants and found almost a third would be highly vulnerable to climate change by 2050.

By 2100, 65 percent of species would be highly vulnerable, it found.

Project leader, senior science adviser Anni Brumby said some species could not adapt.

"It really depends on the species, but often there simply isn't anywhere else they can go and this is especially true of coastal and alpine species," she said.

One example was the Kapitia skink, a species with only around 300 remaining in one small strip of vegetation on the South Island's west coast. The skink was wedged between the ocean and farmland, Brumby said.

"With sea level rise, the species can't move inland because that's high-intensity farmland and not the type of vegetation that it needs," she said.

Native NZ Bat

All five native bats made the list of the most vulnurable native species. Photo: Kerry Borkin

Alpine species were often adapted to colder temperatures, she said.

Paparoa giant wētā was another example.

"They might be adapted to cool conditions so warming of the alpine zone is a real threat."

"And also warmer temperatures can allow invasive species like rats to higher altitudes, pushing those alpine species higher and higher up the mountain until they run out of space."

The assessment found the fairy tern was particularly vulnerable to higher spring tides and increased storm surges on its Northland beach breeding grounds. Pāteke or brown teal, Kōtuku or white heron and Kakī or black stilt were among the other birds on the "highly vulnerable" list.

Although not a first choice of solutions, Brumby said in some cases establishing insurance populations in captivity could help secure the futures of some species - but keeping species in their natural environments was always preferred, she said.

The report had been in the works since 2021 and could now be use to inform conservation efforts, said Brumby.

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