Are the Oscars the highest cultural honour in Western society, or an over-the-top pageant mired in self-congratulatory chumminess? Either way, there's no denying their impact on what we watch.
While they've been long-accused of being out of touch - a perception that came to a head with the #OscarsSoWhite movement - the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences has made a concerted effort in recent years to contemporise its membership and bring enhanced relevancy to its awards.
The moves have resulted in some (stilted) progress, but the Oscars have been overshadowed in recent years by controversies that played out live on TV, like the wrong film being named Best Picture in 2017, and of course 'The Slap' in 2022. That incident means this year's ceremony will probably have more eyes on it than usual.
It's a nice thought that the best work gets awarded (once you set aside the debate over the ranking of art), but the Oscar results famously incorporate many other political, social and cultural factors.
RNZ reviewers Perlina Lau, Dan Slevin and Dominic Corry share what they think will win - and what should win - in eight major categories.
Best Picture
Will Win
Photo:
Dominic Corry: Everything Everywhere All at Once
"It's been a long slow momentum build for the gonzo sci-fi-action-romantic-dramedy, and its fate now looks all but assured."
Perlina Lau: Everything Everywhere All at Once
"I don't think it'll surprise anyone when this multi-genre, comedy/drama/absurdist film takes the big prize."
Dan Slevin: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win
Dominic Corry: Tár
"It's a film you can just luxuriate in, and unflinchingly tackles a whole bunch of topics that most filmmakers are afraid to address. Plus, it's incredibly funny,"
Perlina Lau: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dan Slevin: Tár
"If you were to give the award to the film that now lives rent-free in your head and that you still think, talk, and argue about months after you've seen it, then Todd Field's Tár is head and shoulders above all the other nominees."
Best Director
Will Win
Dominic Corry: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Perlina Lau: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dan Slevin: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win:
Photo: Universal Pictures
Dominic Corry: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
"The singular vision expressed in EEAAO is so true to itself and so uncompromising you can't help but be blown away by the directorial force of it, butt plugs and all."
Perlina Lau: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Dan Slevin: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
"The Fabelmans might well be a victory lap for Spielberg, but it shows the best we've got at his most easeful and effective. As for the final shot? Wow."
Best Actress
Will Win
Dominic Corry: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
"This looks destined to be one of those 'make-good' Oscars, where the industry attempts to compensate for not having previously recognised someone's excellence. That said, Yeoh is spectacular in the role, which asks a lot of her: she has to do Kung Fu, portray myriad versions of her character AND make a mid-life crisis captivating."
Perlina Lau: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
"This is the year of the Yeoh! She is a legend and has been for so long."
Dan Slevin: Cate Blanchett, Tár
"Another one who is the best we've got, went up yet another level with Tár."
Should Win
Photo: screenshot
Dominic Corry: Cate Blanchett, Tár.
"Lydia Tár is a timeless cinematic creation for which Blanchett is the perfect vessel."
Perlina Lau: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dan Slevin: Cate Blanchett, Tár
"It's a characteristically brave performance but also intelligent and humorous."
Best Actor
Will Win
Elvis (2022), starring Austin Butler. Photo: Warner Bros. - Bazmark Films - R / Collection ChristopheL via AFP
Dominic Corry: Austin Butler, Elvis
"Butler's late-season push is emblematic of how the Academy loves to anoint a new young star."
Perlina Lau: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
"Could this be the year George of the Jungle and the linen shirt guy from The Mummy gets an Oscar? What a comeback."
Dan Slevin: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
"Fraser is the front runner in a category that traditionally rewards physical transformation - and it has been lovely seeing him discover how beloved he is - but the film itself continues to divide audiences."
Should Win
Photo: Screenshot
Dominic Corry: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin.
"Everyone in this category is deserving, but my personal favourite of the five performances came from Farrell, who plays a simple, decent man struggling to hold on to his simple decency."
Perlina Lau: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
"Call me ageist but Butler still has plenty of time."
Dan Slevin: Paul Mescal, Aftersun
"I'm a big fan of 'less is more' this year and Mescal slayed me as the troubled father doing his best for his 11-year-old daughter, feeling that he is coming up short. A performance for the ages."
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win
Dominic Corry: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
"The return of the cute little kid from Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and The Goonies is too much of a heart-warmer to ignore.
Perlina Lau: Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once
"This is an epic comeback story."
Dan Slevin: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin or Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
"Keoghan's is a terrific performance in the 'more is more' department and Quan is the people's favourite."
Should Win
Photo: Screenshot
Dominic Corry: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Perlina Lau: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dan Slevin: Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
"Brian Tyree Henry stole a little indie drama called Causeway from Jennifer Lawrence. Not easy to do. Probably not seen by enough people as it went straight to AppleTV+."
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win
Dominic Corry: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis (for an energetic - if ultimately somewhat broad - performance in EEAAO) is widely considered the front-runner here, but this is where I'm putting my money on an upset."
Perlina Lau: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
"It's been Angela Bassett's time this season and there was a lot of buzz around her Golden Globe and Critics Choice wins."
Dan Slevin: Jamie Lee Curtis
Should Win
Photo: Screenshot
Dominic Corry: Kerry Condon for The Banshees of Inisherin
"As much as the beloved Curtis deserves recognition for her stellar career, Condon delivers a more interesting performance from any perspective.
Perlina Lau: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
"Will the Academy pick a winner from a comic-book/superhero film?"
Dan Slevin: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
"Hard to call, this one. Old Hollywood vs New Hollywood. Will the old guard reward one of their own? Sentiment will probably prevail, I think."
Best Cinematography
Photo: Screenshot
Will Win
Dominic Corry: James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front
This could serve as something of a consolation prize for a film the Academy obviously regards very highly (it has nine nominations) but seems unlikely to reward in any of the major categories.
Perlina Lau: James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front
"I feel like this is the obvious winner for this category. It's a solid film with strong images and epic set pieces detailing the brutality and reality of war."
Dan Slevin: James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win
Dominic Corry: James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front
"I'm a sucker for Mandy Walker's over-the-top swooping camera moves in Elvis, but Friend's ambitious cinematography plays such a critical role in his movie's impact."
Perlina Lau: James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front
Dan Slevin: Roger Deakins, Empire of Light
"The question here is whether the Oscars should spotlight good work on a good film or outstanding work on a not-very-good film. I think the Academy should look at the frames themselves and, in that case, they have to give it to the genius Deakins."
The 95th Academy Awards take place on Monday 12 March. RNZ will be live blogging the results from 1pm.
