French far-right likely to fall short of absolute majority, poll shows

6:02 am on 5 July 2024

Former president of the French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) parliamentary group Marine Le Pen gives a speech during the results evening of the first round of the parliamentary elections in Henin-Beaumont, northern France, on June 30, 2024. A divided France is voting in high-stakes parliamentary elections that could see the anti-immigrant and eurosceptic party of Marine Le Pen sweep to power in a historic first. The candidates formally ended their frantic campaigns at midnight June 28, with political activity banned until the first round of voting. (Photo by FRANCOIS LO PRESTI / AFP)

Marine Le Pen. Photo: FRANCOIS LO PRESTI / AFP

France's far-right National Rally party is set to fall short of an absolute majority in Sunday's Parliamentary election run-off, an opinion poll showed on Thursday, suggesting efforts by mainstream parties to block the far right might be working.

It was the second survey in as many days to show Marine Le Pen's RN winning more seats than any other party, but also missing the 289 threshold required for an absolute majority.

This suggested that a "republican front," by which more than 200 candidates across the political spectrum pulled out of three-way second rounds over the past days to clear the path for whoever was best placed to defeat the RN option in their district, seemed to be yielding results.

Meanwhile, France national football team captain Kylian Mbappe urged voters to cast their ballot after what he called a "catastrophic" first round that saw the RN take first place last Sunday.

French President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a meeting with New Caledonia's elected officials and local representatives at the French High Commissioner Louis Le Franc's residence in Noumea, France's Pacific territory of New Caledonia on May 23, 2024. Macron flew to France's Pacific territory of New Caledonia on a politically risky visit aiming to defuse a crisis after nine days of riots that have killed six people and injured hundreds. Macron's sudden decision to fly to the southwest Pacific archipelago, some 17,000 kilometres (10,500 miles) from mainland France, is a sign of the gravity with which the government views the pro-separatist violence.

President Emmanuel Macron. Photo: Pool / Ludovic Marin / AFP

"I think that more than ever we have to go and vote, it's really urgent. We can't leave our country in the hands of these people, it's really urgent," he said, in what seemed to be a clear reference to the RN.

The IFOP poll for LCI and Le Figaro showed the RN winning 210 to 240 seats, down from 240-270 before the withdrawals.

The leftist New Popular Front was seen in second place, with 170 to 200 seats, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Together group with 95 to 125 seats. The conservative Republicans were forecast to win 25 to 45 seats.

On Wednesday, a Harris Interactive poll forecast 190 to 220 seats for the RN.

The RN have said they would not run the government if they do not gain the absolute majority they would need to have free rein.

Le Pen and party chief Jordan Bardella have also repeatedly criticised the "republican front," saying it showed disdain for their voters.

- Reuters