Kamala Harris has overtaken Donald Trump in several key polls. Photo: AFP
Kamala Harris is making inroads into Donald Trump's lead in the seven vital swing states. But it is only by a nose, and there are plenty of dirty politics to come
With less than two months remaining until the 2024 United States presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris has overtaken rival and former President Donald Trump in several key polls - but only by what looks like less than the margin of error.
Harris, who officially took over the Democratic ticket in August, is boosting stronger numbers than President Joe Biden did before his sudden exit, especially in the vital swing states.
The Detail speaks to Republican strategist John Jordan, and legal and political analyst Danielle Mclaughlin, a New Zealander now living in New York.
Mclaughlin says while Harris has the edge, it will be a "very, very tight race".
"Based on what we are seeing in the polling ... it is Harris' to lose, she has the momentum," Mclaughlin says.
"We are seeing this in nationwide polling and also in the very important seven swing states.
"There is an energy and a directness about her campaign, that is lacking on the Trump side, and polling is indicating this as well.
"He is off his game, he thought he was going to be up against Biden. So, I think it will be Harris for the win ... but by a nose."
Harris is leading Trump, just, in key swing states Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Biden struggled to make inroads. That could be crucial in determining the election's outcome.
But Jordan tells The Detail Trump will ultimately succeed.
"It's a tough race right now, this is uncharted territory with a new candidate coming in late," he said.
"But if I had to bet, I would say 55 to 45 or 60 to 40, Trump wins.
"The reason I say that is his strength in the electoral college. Despite all the adoring media coverage that Harris has had, she's been unable to put him away."
Trump and Harris will finally face off this week for a much-anticipated debate.
"Trump needs it more because Harris has the momentum," Mclaughlin says.
"But in saying that, she needs it too. This is about optics; she is a woman - America has never had a female president. She needs to show folks she can stand up to Trump, like she would to any other world leader, in the interests of America."
Jordan says Harris will be wanting her "viral moment, where she is the alpha'".
"That is what is she going to do, and while she's doing that she will avoid talking about the issues.
"She is also going to pretend she is the candidate of change - it is so disingenuous."
As the presidential race enters its final stretch, both sides are set to ramp up their efforts to secure arguably the world's most powerful job.
The debate is on 10 September, while the election is 5 November.
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