By Stephen Collinson, CNN
Photo: AFP / SAUL LOEB
Analysis - Donald Trump is invoking a vision of an extreme new White House term that would transform America and rock the world.
And Vice President Kamala Harris has only three weeks to avert it, as she struggles to restore momentum in a neck-and-neck race to Election Day.
The Republican nominee is escalating the most toxic anti-immigrant rhetoric in modern US history, warning outsiders with "bad genes" have "invaded" the country after falsely claiming that Haitian migrants here legally were eating pets in Ohio.
At a rally in Arizona on Sunday, Trump baselessly suggested that if Harris were elected, "the entire country will be turned into a migrant camp". In Colorado two days earlier, he again vowed to "begin the largest deportation operation in the history of the United States," promising, "We will close the border. We will stop the invasion of illegals into our country. We will defend our territory. We will not be conquered."
And he escalated his threats against political opponents this weekend, saying on Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures he could turn the military on "the enemy from within."
The ex-president, who incited violence to try to stay in power after the 2020 election, also said at a rally Saturday that a heckler exercising the right to free speech should "get the hell knocked out of" her.
In another preview of how he could use presidential power to serve his personal and political whims, Trump this weekend threatened to withhold federal disaster aid to Democratic-run California - even as he falsely accuses Harris and President Joe Biden of doing the same to hurricane-hit Republican districts.
Donald Trump after an assassination attempt in July. Photo: Rebecca DROKE / AFP
Trump also said CBS should lose its licence because he faults its editorial choices over a Harris interview on 60 Minutes that he declined to sit for. Trump's allies, meanwhile, raised concerns about how a new administration might deal with big business by threatening to cancel Deloitte's federal contracts after an employee apparently leaked Senator JD Vance's private messages critical of the former president.
And new details are emerging of the former president's genuflection to foreign tyrants like Vladimir Putin after the Kremlin confirmed Trump sent Covid-19 tests to a Russian authoritarian who is a sworn enemy of the United States during a pandemic he frequently downplayed.
History suggests that Trump doesn't always act on everything he says. But his past behaviour suggests his threats should be taken seriously.
And a Supreme Court ruling granting presidents substantial immunity suggests few impediments to imperial executive power.
Trump's deepening extremism is increasing already massive pressure on Harris. And a phalanx of senior Democratic leaders - including former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama - are pleading with voters in swing states, especially the Black and Latino voters Harris needs, not to let Trump return.
The vice president sharpened her attacks on Trump on Sunday during a rally in North Carolina, criticising him for failing to release his medical records (just after issuing her own medical report) and for refusing to meet her in a second debate and to be interviewed by 60 Minutes.
"He's not being transparent with the voters… It makes you wonder, why does his staff want him to hide away? One must question, are they afraid that people will see that he is too weak and unstable?" she asked.
Kamala Harris. Photo: AFP/ Kyle Mazza
Growing fears among Democrats
Dread is growing among Democrats that the euphoria over Harris' entry into the race in July, her successful convention in August and her debate performance the following month have not translated yet into a decisive lead over Trump.
There's no clear leader in the latest CNN average of national polls, which includes neck-and-neck surveys by CBS, ABC and NBC released Sunday. Even if Harris were leading in national surveys, there are fears that, like Hillary Clinton before her, she could win the popular vote but fall short in the Electoral College.
The tightly balanced race three weeks out shows that while he's an aberration from traditional presidential candidates, Trump is offering something millions of Americans want. Republicans argue that Harris-Biden policies caused a spike in inflation the White House tried for months to downplay. Trump cites the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan to argue the current White House is seen as weak around the world. And after failing to tackle the policy or political ramifications of immigration earlier in Biden's term, Democrats offered Trump a huge opening on a critical issue.
The close contest also suggests that despite Trump's unapologetic extremism, Democrats have failed for the third election in a row to produce a candidate and a message that can give them any reassurance about the election result. While liberals and moderates might be horrified by the strongman leadership Trump proposes, he's winning on what voters consistently say is the top election issue: the economy. In the ABC News/Ipsos poll, for example, 59 percent say it's getting worse, even though the job market is robust, inflation is far from its highs and interest rates are easing.
With the nation in such a sour mood, Harris' incumbency as vice president is a liability. And her failure, in a recent interview with ABC's The View, to come up with even one thing she would have done differently from Biden is a misstep Trump will exploit all the way to Election Day.
Harris has spelled out policies to help people buy and rent homes, to ease the cost of healthcare and to revive a bipartisan border bill that Trump killed. But it's still often hard in her interviews to spot a powerful rationale for her campaign. Trump's vow to deport migrants, torch US trade competitors with tariffs and fix a world spinning out of control looks forceful by comparison, even if extreme.
Still, Democrats looking for reassurance might note that Trump tops out at 48 percent or below in most polls. This implies that his typical ceiling in national elections remains in place, while Harris may still have room to grow. In the NBC News poll, 10 percent of voters said they might change their minds. And what the network called a "sliver" were still unclaimed. In states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and Georgia, even late shifts in support could be decisive.
The eventual makeup of the electorate will also be crucial. Will Harris' focus on abortion rights, for instance, stir higher-than-expected turnout from women voters that could confound pollsters' assumptions? Can she stem her opponent's advances among Black male and Hispanic voters? Or will Trump tap a new pool of support among Americans who agree with him on many issues but rarely vote?
What Harris needs to do
Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik believes the election is a 50-50 race and that Harris plateaued in the last 10 days as Trump gained some ground. He told CNN political director David Chalian on the CNN Political Briefing podcast that the presidency may depend on which candidate finally brands themself as a change agent.
Trump's campaign released a memo Sunday claiming that question had already been answered. "She can't convince the voters that she is 'the change agent' in the race, that she will be better on the economy, inflation, immigration, crime, or improving people's financial situation," the memo said. "The bottom line is that voters say President Trump will do a better job."
But Sosnik said the campaign is "really going to boil down to Harris and whether she can stand up to the pressure and the scrutiny and whether she can create a permission structure for people who don't want to vote for Trump but are concerned about Harris." He warned: "They don't feel like she has given them enough reason to vote for her … she is not doing that right now."
Photo: AFP / Ryan Collerd
Harris' task is complicated by the lack of opportunities to take on Trump directly. The former president, who has spent weeks lambasting her for avoiding the press, rarely strays from his comfort zone of conservative media and Fox News, where he enjoys adulation rather than cross-examination. He is dodging a second presidential debate against Harris and pulled out of a 60 Minutes interview before critiquing the vice president's performance on the show. And whereas in 2016, when Trump's rallies were hard to escape on cable television, the performances now rarely get end-to-end coverage outside conservative media, meaning that many voters may not appreciate his extreme and increasingly disjointed antics.
Obama seemed baffled during a campaign appearance for Harris in Pennsylvania last week at his predecessor's enduring appeal among millions of voters. "There is absolutely no evidence that this man thinks about anyone but himself," Obama said. "Donald Trump sees power as nothing more than a means to an end."
But Trump - despite his two impeachments, his criminal conviction, and his attempt to destroy democracy to stay in power - is within reach of the presidency again with a more radical agenda than before.
Senator Chris Murphy has been sounding the alarm in recent days with a string of increasingly frantic posts on X. Reacting to Trump's description of undocumented migrants last week as "rapists" and the "worst criminals in the world", Murphy wrote that such rhetoric portends "a dystopian country" with open-air prison camps and the rule of law suspended. "We cannot let this happen. His vision of America is not America," the Connecticut Democrat added.
His post underscored what Harris represents for those who fear the very real prospect of Trump's return.
- CNN
