Four years after his supporters invaded the US Capitol, Trump is more powerful than ever

By Stephen Collinson, CNN

Analysis - Late on a day of chaos and blood on 6 January 2021, it was unimaginable that Donald Trump - who summoned a mob to Washington and told the crowd to "fight like hell" - would get anywhere near the presidency again.

Yet on Monday (local time), exactly four years after his supporters invaded the US Capitol, beat up police officers and interrupted the certification of President Joe Biden's 2020 victory, Congress will convene to again confirm another election.

The democracy that Trump tried to desecrate will enshrine his return to power.

A joint session of Congress to count the electoral votes from his November victory will rekindle chilling memories of the horror and fear felt by anyone who was in the US Capitol four years ago.

The ceremonial process that will clear the way for Trump's swearing-in as the 47th president in two weeks will also highlight an extraordinary moment in political history in a nation where Trump is more powerful and popular than he's ever been.

A plurality of voters decided that despite his egregious conduct four years ago, he was the best option to lead the country until January 2029.

This will mark the most stunning political comeback in US history and will usher in a new administration that could feature the president-elect's most extreme stress test of the Constitution so far.

It will also underscore the Democratic Party's failures in convincing voters that Trump represents a mortal threat to the country's democracy and that they had the answers to Americans' economic struggles and concerns over immigration.

Americans made a choice in November, and even though he conjured a day of infamy four years ago, they picked Trump.

Whitewashing history

The congressional certification of Trump's victory - over which his vanquished opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, will preside - will reward an extraordinary effort by the ex-president, his supporters and the conservative media machine to whitewash what happened on one of the darkest in US history.

Trump, with a storm of misinformation, has convinced millions of Americans of his lie about the 2020 election being stolen.

Republicans have rebranded the 6 January rioters as "tourists," persecuted victims and heroes, despite the hundreds of convictions handed down by courts.

Trump has promised to pardon those found guilty over the attack. He launched his 2024 campaign with a recording of the National Anthem by the "J6 choir," sung by prisoners jailed for their role in the riot. And he rebranded 6 January 2021, a "beautiful day" and a "day of love".

This could hardly be more misleading. The truth of 6 January was told in shocking detail by witnesses and law enforcement officers to a congressional select committee when the House was still under Democratic control.

"It was carnage. It was chaos," said Caroline Edwards, a Capitol Police officer whose testimony was interspersed with footage of her being knocked unconscious by Trump's supporters and who described slipping on the spilled blood of her colleagues.

"I am not combat trained, and on that day it was just hours of hand-to-hand combat," Edwards said in June 2022.

While this was unfolding, senators and representatives were running for their lives, Trump's supporters breached the Senate chamber and Secret Service agents hustled then-Vice President Mike Pence to safety as the crowd chanted for him to be hanged.

But by shrugging off his second impeachment over the events of 6 January reestablishing his dominance over the GOP and winning a subsequent election despite multiple criminal indictments, Trump avoided paying a meaningful political price for his assault on democracy.

When he won a non-consecutive second term, he went from being a political aberration to one of the most significant figures in American history.

Along the way, he skillfully portrayed attempts to bring him to justice for his transgressions as persecution, creating a political rallying effect. He'll return to the White House as an even more powerful leader, thanks to a Supreme Court ruling arising from one of his legal cases that gives the president substantial criminal immunity for official acts committed while in office.

Most profoundly, Trump will send a message down through the ages that a president who refuses to accept the result of a free and fair election and who incites an attack on the Capitol can get away with it - and regain power.

An affirmation of the will of voters

Yet, the process of certifying Trump's election win will also be a reaffirmation of democracy. And Biden and Harris, in one of their final acts in office, are restoring a tradition of smooth handoffs between administrations denied to them by Trump.

Biden said Sunday this had been deliberate.

"If you notice, I've reached out to, to make sure the smooth transition. We've got to get back to the basic, normal transfer of power," the president told reporters at the White House.

In a Washington Post op-ed published Sunday evening, he also warned of the dangers of forgetting what happened four years ago.

"An unrelenting effort has been underway to rewrite - even erase - the history of that day. To tell us we didn't see what we all saw with our own eyes. To dismiss concerns about it as some kind of partisan obsession. To explain it away as a protest that just got out of hand," Biden wrote without naming Trump.

"And we should commit to remembering January 6, 2021, every year. To remember it as a day when our democracy was put to the test and prevailed. To remember that democracy - even in America - is never guaranteed," he continued, adding that he has invited his successor to the White House on the morning of 20 January and that he will be attending Trump's inauguration.

Unlike in 2020, the losers - this time, the Democrats - have not lied about election fraud, drawn up alternative slates of electors or called for a crowd to come to Washington to protest false claims of a stolen election.

"He led an insurrection, but the people have now voted and our job tomorrow, which is also January 6, is to implement the will of the people," Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar told CNN's Jake Tapper on State of the Union on Sunday.

"It's the peaceful transition of power. So, Democrats and Republicans will come together tomorrow to certify those results … that's what we do. That's what America has done, and that's what we will do on the Inauguration Day."

The electoral certification of Trump's win will be a bitter moment for Democrats. And, it will highlight the party's painful reality that it couldn't produce a candidate in 2024 to beat a twice-impeached, four-times-indicted, once-convicted ex-president who tried to burn down democracy to stay in power.

If the core purpose of Biden's 2020 campaign was to purge Trump from American political life, then his presidency was a failure, whatever other achievements burnish his legacy.

Biden's decision to run for re-election, which came disastrously unstuck in a CNN debate that laid bare the brutal reality of his diminished capacity, helped set Democrats up for failure.

And Harris' inability to coin a convincing case for how she'd help Americans at a time of high prices and economic insecurity opened the door to Trump's return to the Oval Office.

She never sufficiently distanced herself from the Biden administration's failure to secure the border or its insistence that an inflationary crisis was merely "transitory."

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in an interview on CBS' "Face the Nation" on Sunday that voters hadn't ignored what happened on 6 January but had made a judgment on what was most important to them.

"I wouldn't say that the American people disregarded this. They just had a different view as to what was in their interest, economically and the rest," the California Democrat said.

How US voters decided on Trump despite the horror of 6 January

Trump, with his searing anti-immigration rhetoric, succeeded in painting his chaotic presidency as a kind of lost golden age, despite the scenes of violence and lawlessness that he conjured at its end.

The country indisputably took a step to the right in the 2024 election, toward Trump's populist nationalism, even in many blue-leaning districts and cities.

Trump won all seven swing states and became the first Republican since 2004 to win the popular vote, even if he fell marginally below a majority of votes cast.

His claims of a historic mandate are exaggerated, but that's unlikely to thwart his promise to use power to mount a mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, wreak revenge on his political enemies and attempt a crackdown on the media.

Republicans now control both the House and the Senate and will have the backstop of an often-supportive Supreme Court majority.

Trump's triumph has left Democrats adrift, seeking a new message and wondering how they can connect with working Americans again. And, the party is facing the reality that a plurality of voters preferred a former president who tried to destroy democracy to stay in power to their candidate.

Sufficient voters seemed to decide that they'd prefer a strongman who better voiced their grievances than an alternative who warned that Trump was a threat to democracy.

With their warnings about Trump's threat to constitutional values, Democrats found themselves in the position of defending a government and an establishment in which many Americans had lost faith, after years of foreign wars and the hollowing out of the blue-collar industrial economy.

This sense of the end of an ancient regime was reflected Saturday when Biden made the latest of his postelection jabs at Trump.

He awarded Presidential Medals of Freedom to recipients whom many Democrats see as embodying the democratic order that Trump repudiates.

They included former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who lost to Trump in 2016.

Biden also posthumously recognised assassinated former Democratic presidential candidate Robert F Kennedy, whose vaccine-sceptic son split with Democrats and his family and is Trump's controversial choice to lead the Health and Human Services Department.

He also awarded the medal to former Michigan Governor George Romney, a Republican and the late father of former Utah Senator Mitt Romney, one of Trump's last and most prominent critics in the GOP.

After the ceremony, Biden implied that despite Trump's imminent arrival in the White House, the fight to save democracy would go on.

"Let's remember, our sacred effort continues, and to keep going, as my mother would say, we have to keep the faith," he said.

Republicans warn nothing must thwart certification of Trump's victory

The party that once prided itself on defending global democracy has, however, long since moved on, profiting from its denial of the events of 6 January 2021, which has helped Republicans vault back to power.

Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, keeping the gavel in a razor-thin victory on Friday, is already laying the groundwork to implement Trump's ambitious agenda of strict immigration enforcement, tax cuts and slashes to the size of the federal government despite his tiny House majority.

Johnson has also changed his mind on the urgency of upholding the certification of electoral votes.

Four years ago, he was a key player in Trump's attempts to subvert the result of a democratic election.

Even after the bloody riot, the Louisiana Republican voted against the awarding of electoral votes to Biden in Pennsylvania and Arizona based on false claims of election fraud.

Now, however, he says nothing must get in the way of enshrining Trump's win.

"We got a big snow storm coming to DC, and we encourage all of our colleagues, do not leave town, stay here, because, as you know, the Electoral Count Act requires this on January 6, at 1pm so whether we're in a blizzard or not, we are going to making sure this is done," he told Fox News on Sunday.

"We cannot delay that certification."

- CNN