Auckland University international relations expert Stephen Hoadley talks about the complexities of the Middle East situation, and explains why the path to peace is a very rocky road indeed.
Smoke plumes billow during Israeli air strikes in Gaza City on October 12, 2023 as raging battles between Israel and the Hamas movement continue for the sixth consecutive day. Photo: AFP / Ibrahim Hams
Nearly two weeks after Hamas launched a massive attack on Israel, international attention has turned to the hundreds of thousands of Gazans forced to flee their homes before an imminent Israeli invasion.
Response to the disaster has been far-reaching, from the top levels of the US government, to protests in cities around the world. Yesterday, there was some relief after the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced an agreement to develop an aid plan for civilians in Gaza, without benefitting Hamas.
The breakthrough comes as aid agencies describe the situation as 'humanitarian collapse'.
Today, The Detail looks at what was behind the attack, what it would take to get a ceasefire, and how the media has covered the conflict, with Auckland University associate professor of politics and international relations Stephen Hoadley.
Even the intelligence agencies with the best inside knowledge of the region, including Shin Bet, Mossad and the CIA, had no idea about the well-planned Hamas operation, he says. "We were all caught by surprise."
As Israel masses troops at the border with Gaza in preparation for a ground attack, Hoadley says teams of Israeli commandoes have already gone in looking for hostages and Hamas targets.
"They will section off northern Gaza into neighbourhoods and then try to clear each neighbourhood one by one of any Hamas operatives, ammunition depots, communication centres and other Hamas things of military use in those sectors," he says.
Hoadley explains that Hamas has decades-long grievances that Israel continues to desecrate Al-Aqsa Mosque, abuses Palestinian prisoners and occupies Palestinian land. But he believes they were not the only reasons for the attack on October 7 when at least 1,300 people were killed, leading to Israel's response and the death of more than 2,700 in Gaza.
"My take is that the Israeli government and the Saudi government have been talking about normalising relations, as has already taken place with UAE (United Arab Emirates), with Morocco, with Bahrain and a number of other Arab countries, and the Palestinians have been forgotten," says Hoadley.
"They feel that the governments of the Middle East are pursuing their own geopolitical and economic interests and the Palestinian cause, five million Palestinians divided between Gaza and the West Bank – their cause has been put far down the agenda and they needed to do something to re-establish their credibility, their visibility on the world stage."
As uncertainty grows over the fate of the Gazan people and the stability of the region, Hoadley says one thing is not in doubt: that the war that started about 50 years ago will continue.
"Largely small scale but occasionally something like the current flare-up, which is a mega flare-up. But it will resolve itself in due course as the parties, particularly the Palestinians, run out of ammunition and hide from the overwhelming Israeli force .... [they] will regroup and they certainly plan a further initiative down the track," he says.
Hoadley says he has watched the way public perceptions over the conflict have changed over the decades.
"Over the last 20 or 30 years Israel has become stronger and some would say more militant, less tolerant of the Palestinians, and the Palestinian leadership has become less tolerant of Israeli leadership," he says.
At the same time, the anti-Israel Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement has grown in popularity amongst "ordinary people", sympathising with Palestine.
"And I don't want to bag the media here. I think the media does try sincerely to cover stories in as unbiased a way as they can so I'm going to give them all credit. But I'm going to say there's a subtle, unconscious bias that takes place because of the asymmetry of the nature of the conflict going on."
"A bias in favour of the Palestinians, a feeling that the Israelis are bullies ... and the Palestinians are poor underdogs in this particular conflict, which is partly true."
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