Oil and gas exploration is coming back. Will it save the sector, destroy the environment - or make no difference at all?
A Southern Star Oil rig platform in Taranaki. Photo: supplied Photo: Supplied
The government's planned reversal of the oil and gas exploration ban has been unsurprisingly divisive, being applauded by some and harshly criticised by others.
But Newsroom’s Marc Daalder says in reality, it may make no tangible difference.
“It’s possible that the government repeals the ban and new developers don't come in because they look at New Zealand and they say ‘well actually half the parties in parliament want to ban us from doing this, so if there's an election and those parties win we’re back to square one, so should we be investing a significant amount of capital?”
In today's episode of The Detail, we look at how New Zealand got to the 2018 ban in the first place, the current state of the oil and gas sector, and the impact the changes could have.
John Carnegie, Chief Executive of Energy Resources Aotearoa, says that oil and gas accounts for about half of New Zealand’s primary energy. Currently, all oil and gas fields in New Zealand are in Taranaki, or just off its coast. But Carnegie says there are several areas around New Zealand where the industry believes there are oil and gas resources, but they aren't allowed to explore due to the 2018 ban.
"There were permits that were held off the coast in Great South Basin, off the coast of the South Island, off the coast of the East Coast of the North Island but progressively, all of those permits have been handed back because obviously with the ban, the market conditions changed:"
He says because the ban was a "massive change" and "unexpected", it became harder for oil and gas companies to invest in New Zealand.
Daalder questions that logic.
"The reality is the fossil fuel sector and fossil fuel companies globally can see the writing on the wall: we don't need fossil fuels anymore. If not this year, then next year or maybe the year after will be the period where global fossil fuel demand for things like electricity starts to peak," he says.
"The International Energy Agency, which is not a hugely ambitious organisation on climate, in 2021, published a scenario for how to reach net zero energy systems and how to do that in a way that limits warming to 1.5 degrees [Celsius], which is the global goal, but also the goal that's in our Zero Carbon Act that the government has to achieve. It found that the pathway doesn't involve any new oil and gas fields.
"The scientific evidence here is very robust - it has been reconfirmed by many different studies and all of those studies say we do need some gas still, we do need some oil still, we even need some coal still, globally speaking. But we don't need to go looking for new sources."
Victoria University senior lecturer in environmental studies Amanda Thomas says "the majority of the public wants...more serious action to address the climate crisis," but that laws made under the last National government have made it more dangerous to protest.
"New legislation set out a consenting process that excluded the public," she says.
"In fact, [it] criminalised protest within 500 metres of exploration vessels - essentially changed the rules that related to protest at sea."
Despite this, she expects to see a "ramping up of direct action as well as protests, submissions, community meetings".
"For some people, the stakes became too high. If you've got a young family or community responsibilities, facing up to tens-of-thousands of dollars in fines is not super attractive. For other people, they said it was like a 'red rag to a bull' - if you're going to limit our democratic right to protest... then you can expect me to step into that space and assert my right to those things."
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